By Charles Ombati
If elections in Dagoreti North Constituency were held today, Jubilee’s nominated Senator Hon Beatrice Elachi aka Mama Dago, would beat the incumbent MP ODM’s Simba Arati by a huge margin. Those are the words of renowned top political connoisseurs professors Mutahi Ngunyi, Herman Manyora and emeritus Barrack Muluka.
Although the three distinguished professors gave differing views on the Dagoretti North race, they agreed unanimously that Elachi will demonstrably beat Arati like a talking drum by 8am. The three were speaking to The Star journalists who paid them an impromptu visit at Professor Ngunyi’s office in Upper Hill.
For Mutahi Ngunyi, the Dagoreti North race will be a tribal race and the candidate from the tribe with the majority who in this case are Luhyias, will carry the day. That gives hon Elachi an upper hand.
According to professor Herman Manyora, NASA made a blunder by fielding two strong candidates.
“There is word making rounds on social media that hon Arati said he is sure of winning with only Luo and Kisii votes and that he is no longer interested in the Luhyia vote. Remember Senator Elachi is pure Luhya, forget about cheap rumors being peddled by her opponents that her father is Luhya and her mum Kikuyu. I know the lady from when she was young. I know her parents well. They are both pure Luhyas. you see, Elachi is a woman of unparalleled integrity. She is she is bilingual and can speak up to 6 local languages. Her fluency in Kikuyu confuses many including Hon Simba. The distinguished lady speaks Taita so perfectly than even the Taitas themselves you know” Said Professor Manyora.
“You see in 2013 polls, Arati was elected by Luhyas in ODM and not Kisiis. Arati is Kisii but Kisiis are the minority. According to IEBC register, the total number of registered voters in Dagoretti North is 148710. Out of this, Luhyas have the highest number of registered voters totaling 74000 followed by Kikuyus with 40000. Kisiis are distant third with a paltry 16018 and Luos 6377. In Dagoretti. Now, here is how Elachi will win. Dagoreti North race has two NASA candidates that are equally strong. There is ODM’s Simba Arati the incumbent and ANC’s Shilibwa” Said Ngunyi.
“Suppose the two NASA candidates divide their votes, the Kikuyu vote will determine who carries the day. In this case, Kikuyus will only vote for a Jubilee candidate who happens to be madam Elachi. Remember even as NASA divides his votes, there are more than 10000 Luhyias who shall vote for Elachi as an individual and not necessarily for the party” He added.
“Suppose out of the 40,000 Kikuyu vote, 30,000 come out to vote for Elachi assuming she’ll get approximately 10,000 votes from Luhyias in NASA. That will total 40,000”
“On Arati, he is on record saying he does not want the Luhya votes and as a result, many Luhyas are disappointed in him. Assume 10,000 of the 16,000 registered Kisii voters turn out to vote for him. Of course there are those loyal ODM Luhyas who will vote for him. Let us say they give him 7,000 votes plus approximately 4,000 Luo votes. He will slightly surpass the 20,000 mark” He concluded.
“I think the only thing I can say is, the Lion of Dagoretti North is scared The lioness has already beaten him.” Concluded Emeritus Barrack Muluka.