Firstly, let it be on record that both Hon Dr Paul otuoma and H. E Governor Sospeter Ojaamong are close confidants of NASA Supreme Leader Rt Hon Raila Odinga.
Dr Otuoma has invested in ODM and in Raila presidency since 2005, he is closer to Raila than any other Luyha- not even Musalia or Governor Oparanya no doubt he trusts Raila and no mattter what, he will stick with Jakom- this you can take to any Bank in the world for a serious loan.
Busia is 97% pro Odinga, it doesnt matter what nominations fiasco will bring forthwith, it doesnt matter how much Jubilee will pour in Tesoland, they may get an MP BUT presidential vote is a solid gurantee for Raila.
The Busia situation with its current dynamics presents Raila the easiest way of resolving the little matter between Ojaamong and Dr Otuoma. Those of us who have studied Jakom for long will tell you that he respects the will of the people and has previously encouraged disgruntled members especially those close to him to pick another friendly party and be on the ballot.
From the look of things Ojaamong will not reliquish the certificate and Dr Otuoma has the numbers, Raila will most likely encourage Hon Dr Otuoma to run as an independent (the law bars him from defecting to a NASA friendly party since his name was submitted to IEBC having taken part in ODM nominations).
Running as an independent and supporting Raila is the clear way forward for Otuoma. For Ojaamong, sticking with ODM certificate gives Raila more bonga points to push Teso to rally behind his presidency (Tesoland has between 100,000 to 120,000 registeed voters, this Raila must have.
In the end Busia nominations fiasco will be a blessing for Raila (Luyha will turnout 100% to make Otuoma governor and Tesoland will do the same to make Ojaamong governor. Jubilee will lose the minority support in Tesoland this time thanks to the screwed ODM nominations…
Meanwhile here is how Dr Otuoma ‘s lead ground strategists (Kamasasa E) summarised Busia county statitics:
“The total number of votes in Busia county is slightly over 400,000. Out of this, the total number of votes in 2 Teso constituencies that Ojaamong think he control commands slightly over 90,000 votes but below 100k.
The remaining 5 constituencies that Dr Otwoma is commanding has a whooping slightly over 300,000 votes.
At the moment Dr Otwoma solidified his support Base. Wherever he will move is where they will be. The ODM certificate in the hands of Ojaamong won’t move even one vote from Otwoma grasp to him. Even if Raila comes to Busia for weeks doing door to door campaign for Ojaamong, can’t deduct votes from Dr Otwoma basket.”