ODMs NEC and NEB with their inactions is likely to let the following seats go away from them. I mean with their INACTIONS.
1. Nyatike- If the party insinsts on giving the certificate to OMONDI ANYANGA,his closest challenger TOM ODEGE may decide to go independent and beat him.
2. Rarieda- My research shows NETO ADHOLA is more popular than the former OMBUDSMAN. Thou the party seems comfortable with OTIENDE AMOLO than ADHOLA. This MAY cause the party so much in the long run.
3. MIGORI- Governor Zachary Okoth Obado is loved and hated in equal measure…..hated mostly by non Migorians but the guy is more popular than the highly hyped OCHILO AYACKO. My research shows,even if denied the party certificate by the power barons at the Orange house and decides to go independent, Obado will still triumph. He’s the most popular candidate.
4. BUSIA- You all heard the chants, ” NO Otuoma no Raila…” that’s what tells you what’s there in store for the party from the electorates. People can vote in protest of the wrong party decision they can make about OTUOMA.In the unlikely event that ODM hands the certificate to OJAMONG then expect the following governors in Western because of the Busia ripple effect; 1. Busia – ANC – OTUOMA, 2. Vihiga- Akaranga, 3. Kakamega- Khalwale and 4.Bungoma- Ford Kenya
It may happen and you know that it can go further than this affecting the overall tally.
5. MUHORONI- I still doubt if ODMs preferred candidate, prof Ayiecho Olweny has redeemed himself enough to recapture this seat from Koyoo. If proper measurers are not taken,Muhoroni will continue to be under a foreign party.
6. KISUMU WEST- This constituency is under the able leadership of a renowned lawyer in ALUOCH OLAGHO. Olagho was shortchanged by the party in the previous elections and decamped to Ford Kenya. He’s still in Ford for ODM to reclaim the seat,they must front a stronger candidate than Olagho
7. Kwale County- I just don’t know how ODM handled Mwakere when he defected to the party but be assured,the day Mwakere defected from Odm to Wiper is the day the gubernatorial seat eclipsed our movement.
8. Nyali- This is one of the most delicate seats for Odm. Railas project jicho pevu and Joho’s Saido are out to battle it. Any defection after party primaries may cost Odm this seat.